BETTING IS OFFICIALLY CLOSED! Click here for your data and analysis needs I'm offering a reward of $25, in BTC, out of my own pocket, without buy-in, without a betting pool, to the person who posts in this thread, correctly predicting the following:
The highest price per BTC in $ between 1st of August and 31st of December 2015
The lowest price per BTC in $ between 1st of August and 31st of December 2015
Whoever is closest to the real values will win. Both values have to be posted to be considered a valid prediction. Both values are weighted at 50% importance, meaning a bullseye for one and a complete miss for the other means somebody else will propably win. For reference I'll use the price of bitfinex. Betting closes midnight Sunday 19th to Monday 20th, GMT Eligible to win is everybody who meets the following criteria:
account is 4 weeks old or older at the time of this post
the post with the price prediction is not edited after Sunday, July 19 2015
The winner will be announced in the first week of January 2016. Everybody has 1 guess. If somebody should make multiple predictions, I will use the result furthest from the truth for evaluation. Place your bets, gentlemen! You've got nothing to lose! Use this link to be reminded of this post on 01-01-2016 via RemindMeBot If anybody wants to analyse any data from this thread (which I'm planning to do, too), please don't publish your results until betting closes, so it doesn't skew any votes. Thank you. UPDATE:imog is matching my reward, so the price for the winner is now at $50! UPDATE 2:YRuafraid matches the award, too, so the prize for the winner is now $75! UPDATE 3:azop offers a prize of 0.1 BTC to the 2nd place, so depending on what the price is doing until January, the 2nd prize might be bigger than the 1st :D
AWARDS (I don't want to tip a possible inactive account, so you have to report here in order to claim your prize. If the prize does not get claimed in 7 days, I will contact the runner-ups one after another until I got rid of the money ;)) Ender985 , congratulations, get in here! You can choose tipbot or normal BTC-TX to recieve your prize. IronVape , azop promised a second prize of 0.1 BTC for the second place, so you have to report in as well. Also, paging imog and YRuafraid , both pledging to match my prize for $25 for first place, so the winner should recieve $75 if everybody honours their pledge! Method to determine the winner Highest price : $504 (bitfinex on Nov. 04) Lowest price : $211.98 (winkdex on Aug. 25, because bitfinex shit the bed that day) Formula to determine the winner, lowest score wins:
Thanks again to imog and YRuafraid for pledging to match my reward for 1st place, and to azop for his prize of 0.1 BTC to the 2nd place, and thanks to all the players, it was a suprisingly close call between the first three in the end.
/r/bitcoin thread 1zh4gr ("What will the price of Bitcoin be on January 1st, 2015?") prediction threshold reached for post cftllr8. The predicted value of 1 BTC "some thing like $3200-$6400 by July" falls wildly short of estimate. This is good news for Bitcoin.
“It could be worth nothing, for all we know. Anything anyone says about the price of bitcoin in the future is pure speculation and like predicting the outcome of a slot machine.“ — Jackson Palmer, creator of dogecoin on bitcoin price in 2015
Is Bitcoin a leading indicator for stocks? (plot attached)
I read an article that claimed that Bitcoin tended to lead stocks market changes, but this was the usual tea leaf reading and chart-staring. So I decided to compute the cross-correlation function of daily bitcoin percentage changes with SP500 daily percentage changes, from 2015 to today. Plot here: https://i.imgur.com/zNHSzZK.png The big white peak shows that bitcoin and stocks move in parallel on the same day (zero time lag). But the broad bump in the red boxcar-smoothed correlation function suggests that bitcoin prices changes today are correlated with SP500 changes over the upcoming week. However the SP500 seems to have little or no predictive power for Bitcoin, because there's no peak to the left of zero. NOTE: the cross-correlation function is defined as c(t) = ∫ 𝝙BTC(𝜏 )/BTC((𝜏 ) ⨉ 𝝙SP500(𝜏 +t)/SP500(𝜏 +t)d𝜏 so that if BTC(𝜏 ) tends move the same as SP500(𝜏+t) for many 𝜏 then c(t) should have a peak at t. edit - a simple hypothesis: The zero-lag (white) correlation is obviously just normal correlated markets. The longer (red) correlation represents an internal lag time to the stock market in responding to events. For example a negative event causes a crash in both BTC and SP500. The Bitcoin falls fast, and stops, but SP500 reacts slowly and the sell-off takes a few days to complete. As an analogy, an earthquake knocks down a building (BTC), and also sets off a huge landslide (SP500), but the big landslide tends to be followed by a series of smaller landslides. The building's fall "predicted" the multi-day landslide, but it's not a useful prediction, because you could have looked at the initial landslide and known that more landslides tend to follow. edit 2: a technical way of saying this is that the SP500 might have a longer impulse response to external events than BTC.
I'm running a couple weeks late on my 2015 Bitcoin predictions post because I was extremely busy traveling through Hong Kong, Tokyo, and Hawaii this past month. Anyway, my goal with this post is to give you some actionable insight into what I think is going to happen in our digital currency community this year… First off, Bitcoin's price has been on a steady decline since the “China Bubble ... We provide accurate short-term and long-term Price Predictions and Forecasts for the Top 100 CryptoCurrencies on a daily basis since 2015 ... The price of Bitcoin (BTC) had to hold the crucial support level between $11,100-11,300, and it did. After this support test, the price of BTC continued to surge upward... Bitcoin average transaction value increases 500% since July. October 21, 2020 ... Bitcoin Price Predictions Based On Quantitative Models Bitcoin Price Prediction as per Mayer Multiple Approach. Trace Mayer; a hedge fund manager created the Mayer Multiple model that helps to predict the ideal times to buy and sell bitcoin which is determined by dividing the current price of bitcoin divided by its 200 days daily exponential moving average (EMA). The average Mayer Multiple ... Bitcoin () Cryptocurrency Market info Recommendations: Buy or sell Bitcoin? Cryptocurrency Market & Coin Exchange report, prediction for the future: You'll find the Bitcoin Price prediction below. According to present data Bitcoin (BTC) and potentially its market environment has been in a bullish cycle in the last 12 months (if exists). Long term Bitcoin predictions – 2023-2025. Predictions focusing on five years to come are equating the BTC USD ratio to as high as 1:160,000. The bitcoin price prediction putting BTC at $160,000 is relying on major upward moves in the history of bitcoin. This includes the time the king crypto took to move from one high to another high.
Bitcoin Price Prediction 2015 - Duration: 5:09. David MacGregor 4,286 views. 5:09. Make a Living in 1 Hour a Day Trading the 3 Bar Play!! - Duration: 34:34. Live Traders Recommended for you. 34:34 ... Published on Jan 4, 2015 There are a lot of ups and downs right now but its important to take perspective on Bitcoins success. Please watch: "EXSCUDO WEEKLY #20- Crypto Currency World Expo ... Bitcoin prices have dropped nearly 50% in the past three months. Jim Rickards says that price volatility is just one of the problems plaguing the cryptocurrency… Join the discussion! Sign up for ... According to this model that predicts bitcoin price with 95% accuracy, it indicates that bitcoin price will reach $100,000 sometime after 2021 and $1,000,000... Bitcoin Price Prediction From Zero to a Million Experts Opinions - Duration: 10:24. Aimstone 40,878 views. 10:24. How Many Bitcoin Should You Own? - Duration: 16:34. ...